On September 29th, the DOT announced an emergency rule limiting who qualifies for non-domiciled CDLs, a change expected to drastically reduce the number of eligible truck drivers and thus restrict trucking capacity across the freight market.
Just weeks after the rule was announced, Shaker is already seeing its impact. Jason Smith, CEO, gives insights into how the new rule might continue to impact shippers and the market at large.
Non-domiciled CDLs
A commercial drivers license (CDL) is mandatory for truck drivers, and in the early 2000s the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) introduced a “non-domiciled” CDL program to address a national driver shortage. This program allows qualifying temporary US residents, who aren’t yet citizens or permanent residents, to work as truck drivers.
According to the FMCSA, non-domiciled CDL holders make up around 5% of the active CDL workforce, which is roughly 200,000 drivers.
“Non-domiciled CDL drivers are very important to the future of American trucking,” Jason Smith said, “Our economy is strengthened by the foreign nationals willing to work long, hard hours here for a fair wage. That said, we can’t afford to have unsafe drivers on the road.”
While there have always been regulations in place for issuing non-domiciled CDLs, the FMCSA uncovered substantial cracks in the system that could pose a threat to national road safety.
A public safety emergency
The FMCSA’s 2025 program review revealed widespread gaps in oversight, from training and quality assurance to license compliance.
Some states like California, Texas, and Pennsylvania had incorrectly issued non-domiciled CDLs, including cases where licenses remained valid even after work authorizations expired. The agency also linked 5 fatal crashes to non-domiciled CDL holders, stating that the responsible drivers wouldn’t qualify for a CDL under new regulations.
Though there’s no evidence suggesting that non-domiciled drivers cause fatal accidents at a higher rate than domiciled drivers, the DOT declared a national emergency and announced an emergency interim final rule (IFR) on September 29th, immediately limiting eligibility and tightening state procedures. A North Carolina congressional representative has already proposed an act that would make this DOT rule a law.
States must now verify immigration status through the Department of Homeland Security, identify and revoke all invalid licenses, and require annual in-person renewals. Some states, like California, have already suspended non-domiciled issuance altogether.
Because the IFR took effect immediately after it was announced, the trucking market had no time to adjust to a capacity change while talks took place.
A capacity black hole
The FMCSA estimates that just 6,000 of the current 200,000 non-domiciled CDL holders will be eligible to keep their license under the new system. Combined with a recent order that all drivers must demonstrate English language proficiency, a larger segment of the driver workforce could be at risk of being sidelined or voluntarily choosing to leave the industry.
“We’ve already heard carriers talking about a major capacity shift,” said Jason. “Drivers would rather resign than be put out of service for their language skills or have their immigration status scrutinized.”
Regions that might see a more drastic decline in capacity include regions with higher populations of drivers that hold non-domiciled CDLs or do not speak English as a first language like the Midwest, Texas, California, and Florida.
As driver numbers shrink, shippers could face service failures that will force them to turn to the volatile spot market. Still, Shaker’s team has been watching the market, and we believe there’s no need to panic just yet.
A built-in market safety net
Thanks to excess capacity that arose during the pandemic and persisted in its wake, we expect that the current slack in the market can absorb a short-term driver reduction without a major rate spike.
But shippers shouldn’t expect this buffer to last. With ongoing tariff talks causing uncertainty and suppressing freight volumes, capacity is already declining. If this trend continues, a drop in active driver numbers could constrain capacity further and cause shipping rates to soar.
How shippers can protect themselves from a capacity dip
Focus on compliance
“Carriers with poor safety and compliance scores will be at the top of the DOT’s list for a non-domiciled CDL audit,” said Jason. “Shippers need to know that their carriers aren’t in the red on things like unsafe driving or vehicle maintenance, so we check that for them.”
Shaker’s carrier sales team vets every carrier before we work with them, checking their safety scores and verifying CDL status. Our carrier network provides nationwide coverage, giving shippers access to a deep pool of capacity. Our fleet drivers also have domiciled CDLs and pass extensive background checks.
Get inventive with backup modes
The current regulations focus on CDL drivers, meaning any type of truckload service could be impacted by a capacity reduction. Shaker’s team can help shippers explore alternate modes.
For example, sprinter vans and some small box trucks can be driven without a CDL. Large shipments that aren’t time definite can be moved on the rail, and smaller items can be shipped via air cargo for an expedited delivery.
“The trucking industry in general has a high driver turnover rate because of how demanding the job is, so we’re always in need of more drivers,” said Jason. “Ideally, the government will find a way to bring in drivers who can keep goods moving in a way that is both safe and compliant. But until we reach that point, we have to stay diligent.”
As the industry adjusts to these new regulations, proactive planning and seeking reliable partners will help shippers stay ahead of the adapting market. Shaker Logistics is committed to helping shippers move ahead safely and efficiently in any market condition.
Need help navigating capacity changes?
Contact Shaker’s team today for reliable, inventive, and compliant transportation solutions.