What’s in store for the freight and logistics industry in 2026? Now that the confetti from New Years celebrations has been cleaned up, the team at Shaker Logistics is keeping an eye on the political, economic, and market dynamics that are already impacting the supply chain. Shippers assessing their 2026 transportation plans and budget will have a lot to contend with. Here are a few industry metrics that Shaker Logistics CEO, Jason Smith, is watching closely with his team.
Beyond U.S. Borders – Import Volumes
International shipping has a domino effect on trucking in America that impacts shippers’ routing guides and truck capacity.
When import volumes increase, carriers reroute trucks towards port cities in California, New Jersey, and Texas to meet that volume. This typically drives up spot rates and saps inland regions of their normal capacity. The inverse is true when import volumes dip, and rates decrease as carriers compete for the remaining domestic freight.
This year two factors are poised to impact freight volumes into the US, and therefore, cause a shift in capacity and rates:
Suez Canal Travel Changes
The Suez Canal, a major trade route linking the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, is set to “reopen” in 2026.
The canal was never “closed” in an official capacity, but when Houthi rebel groups in Yemen began attacking cargo ships in the Red Sea in 2023, trade traffic through the canal stopped. Ships containing valuable oil, electronics, auto parts, and more rerouted around the southern tip of Africa to avoid dangerous waters.
These reroutes delayed imports by weeks and increased shipping costs, contributing to a global supply chain disruption as containers and ships repositioned along the safer trade route.
But since a ceasefire was brokered between Israel and Gaza, Houthi attacks have stopped, and several shipping companies are now testing the Red Sea’s waters. Supply chain experts predict that the canal could again become a viable shipping option in 2026, and container availability may correct back to its “normal” state. This could signal increased imports into the US and lead to moderate rate reductions. As with any geopolitical factor, the situation can change rapidly, and further conflict in the region may again deter shippers from using the Suez Canal.
Tariff Volatility
Tariff negotiations between the US and other nations are likely to continue into 2026. Nobody can predict which tariffs will stick or how that will affect US manufacturing, but as we saw in 2025, abrupt tariff announcements can rapidly shift import and export priorities and alter freight market dynamics in tandem.
Jason Smith, CEO of Shaker said, “It’s hard for many shippers to plan under the uncertainty we’ve been facing. But monitoring international relations can lend clues about what countries will face import tariffs, and how that might boost or choke import volumes.”
Freight volumes and rates won’t see much of an upset if tariffs continue to burden American importers. As tariffs change, we can expect imports to surge as manufacturers order whatever they can while favorable conditions last. It takes up to 60 days for imports to reach America, at which point shipping rates will likely spike with the sudden volume increase.
Complicating Factors: Pandemic Hangover and the Driver Workforce
The impacts of tariff negotiations and the Suez reopening could be muted or delayed, thanks to overlapping market conditions and federal initiatives.
The Freight Recession
Supply chain leaders have dubbed the last few years a “freight recession” period, as excess capacity from the pandemic freight boom lingers despite suppressed shipping volumes. This era has been characterized by generally low shipping rates, decreased equipment sales and manufacturing, and an overall “soft” freight market.
The end of 2025 saw carriers feeling the effects of this recession, with several long-standing carriers filing for bankruptcy or shutting down completely. Trucking companies that operated at a loss to stay competitive in a low market felt this the most, and shippers paying low rates saw their routing guides fall apart. In addition, this pressure on capacity led to increased tender rejections and higher spot rates.
As the same time carriers are dropping out of the market, the driver workforce is narrowing under increasing federal oversight to restrict non-domiciled drivers.
Federal Pressure on the Trucking Market
In June of 2025 the DOT began enforcing an executive order requiring CDL holders to be proficient in the English language. Then in September, the FMCSA issued emergency rules limiting eligibility for, and distribution of, non-domiciled CDLs (issued to drivers who are non-permanent residents of the US).
Industry experts are still debating the impacts of these new rules. The DOT claims that more than 10,000 drivers were put out of service (OOS) due to ELP violations, though those numbers could represent warnings rather than full OOS orders. Several states are also halting non-domiciled CDL issuance or cancelling licenses in response to federal pressure.
While the government claims these regulations are removing potentially dangerous drivers from our roads, logistics professionals have yet to see a major change in capacity or safety.
“If anything, people who fear losing their jobs as truck drivers in America are quietly leaving the industry,” said Jason. “We haven’t seen a mass exodus yet, but that could be a symptom of the capacity oversupply our industry has dealt with for years now.”
This capacity surplus might act as a buffer between shippers and increasing rates going into 2026, but only time will tell. Beyond regulations and workforce constraints, another factor is influencing the freight market from the outside.
The wild card – the housing market
After working in logistics for over 25 years, Jason identified an unexpected early indicator of changes to come in freight volume, capacity, and rates:
“The housing market can be a driving force for the freight market. As more houses sell and buyers renovate their new homes, manufacturers ramp up production to keep pace with the demand for those supplies. A hot housing market also indicates more consumer spending on a broader scale, pointing to higher freight volumes and rate increases down the line.”
Moving Ahead
With several opposing forces set to impact shipping capacity in 2026, it can be hard for shippers to know what to consider as they build transportation plans and budgets.
Working with an experienced 3PL like Shaker can save shippers time and effort going into Q1 and beyond. With a skilled team of market analysts and seasoned logistics professionals who can read the market for them, we help shippers make fully informed logistics decisions year-round.
Don’t leave your transportation up to chance. Reach out to Shaker Logistics today for a reliable, experienced partner in logistics.